Friday, 8 November 2013

The missing step

What is unexplained and unjustified in the whole business of man made global warming is the absolutely essential presumption that since CO2 has increased 50% since industrialization, industrialization must have caused the CO2 increase.   It stands to reason.    Few question it because it seems obvious.    Heavy things fall faster because they are heavier.    Common sense.   Consensus.    The science is in.    Everyone knows, etc.  

This foundation piece of logic is an implicit assumption in everything which follows in the argument and you are considered slightly mad to question it as it is so obvious.   If two things happen at once, of course one caused the other and of course industry is the polluter and CO2 the pollutant.   This is the instinctive logic of most people, so obvious it is hardly questioned.   However if it is not true, the rest of man made Global Warming is rubbish.

So which caused which?  Is it coincidence?   Consider the next argument that CO2 and CO2 alone caused the late 20th century warming  If substantial warming and cooling happened prior to industry, it  raises serious doubts.  So all mention of the Roman warming and the medieval Period are just rubbed out.

My contention is that before we get to Global warming being caused by CO2 increases, the core question, the core assumption is whether the CO2 increase is caused by the industrial revolution and the use of coal, oil and gas.  Can it be verified, that that the extra CO2 in the atmosphere was caused by us, humans?

The other posts use C14 as the measure of whether it is true and it is not.  The conclusion of these posts is that the CO2 increase cannot be from fossil fuel or C14 levels would be much lower.   Another core belief, which comes from an understandable ignorance of what for most is obscure science, is that you cannot just tip a huge amount of fossil CO2 into the air and it will stay there and even that it will be maintained at this level while undergoing active exchange with the world below.    That is simply not true.  Really it doesn't even make sense.    To understand this, people need to understand the science of equilibrium, the idea that the air and the world are one.   The way in which gases are exchanged is critical.

In this the air and the water are not two different, alien things as they appear.  Each is part of the other.   Air is dissolved in the ocean.   In fact most of all CO2 is in the ocean.   Conversely, when you see clouds and rain and feel humidity across the planet, that is sea water.    The O2 generated by plants and plankton through photosynthesis feeds the trees and grasses but also the fish.   When the fish swim, they breathe O2 filtering it out of the water, while we have lungs.   In all this the exchange of gases is the essential process, whether in your lungs or at the water/air boundary.   This is all based on the principles of equilibrium.  Once this is understood, the idea that you can increase CO2 50% by putting a lot of CO2 in the atmosphere alone just seems nonsense.   It is nonsense.   At constant temperature and pressure, it is not possible to change the ratio of CO2 in the air and CO2 in the ocean.  

So the point of these posts is that CO2 increases simply because ocean temperatures increase, not the other way around. Man cannot increase in fact change the proportion of CO2 in the air.  This is established and well known physical chemical.   If that presumption that the increase in CO2 is man made is busted, the whole AGW story is busted.   Man is not causing the warming, assuming warming is even happening.

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